Nearly ten years have passed since the Brexit referendum, one of the most consequential political events in modern British history. Former Prime Minister David Cameron agreed to hold the referendum believing that the British public would ultimately vote to remain in the European Union. Instead, the result surprised both supporters and opponents of Brexit and led to his resignation.
The referendum exposed deep divisions within British society. On one side were those who favoured greater international integration, openness, and diversity; on the other were those who prioritised national sovereignty, border control, and greater independence from European institutions. These divisions continue to shape British politics today.
However, politics cannot be separated from economics. A strong economy supports public services, attracts investment, creates jobs, and raises living standards. For this reason, the economic consequences of Brexit are as important as its political implications.
Brexit has contributed to a period of political instability in the United Kingdom. Since the referendum, the country has seen the premierships of David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and now Keir Starmer. While not all of these leadership changes can be attributed solely to Brexit, the issue has remained a dominant force in British politics and has complicated governance.
At the same time, any assessment of Brexit must acknowledge other major events that have affected the British economy, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and wider geopolitical tensions. These factors make it difficult to isolate the precise impact of Brexit.
This article does not attempt to examine every possible factor. Instead, it focuses on a practical question: has Brexit improved or weakened Britain’s economic position? To answer this, we will examine key indicators such as government revenue, public spending, investment, economic growth, and household incomes.
Government Revenue
One of the most direct ways to assess economic performance is to examine government revenue. If an economy is shrinking or stagnating, tax receipts would normally be expected to struggle. Conversely, a growing economy tends to generate more revenue through higher employment, rising wages, increased consumption, and greater business activity.
In 2016/17, around the time of the Brexit referendum, total UK government receipts were approximately £754 billion. By 2025/26, government revenue had risen to roughly £1.23 trillion.
Some of this increase reflects inflation. However, even after adjusting for inflation, government revenue remains substantially higher than it was in 2016. Population growth also explains only part of the increase. The UK population has grown by approximately 6% since the referendum, whereas government receipts have increased by a much larger amount.
As a result, government revenue per person is significantly higher than it was at the time of Brexit. This suggests that the rise cannot be explained solely by a larger population. More economic activity is taking place, generating higher tax receipts for the state.
It is also true that governments have increased certain taxes during this period. Nevertheless, higher tax rates alone cannot generate large increases in revenue unless there is sufficient income, spending, employment and business activity on which those taxes can be collected. The growth in receipts therefore reflects not only policy choices but also the economy’s capacity to generate taxable income.
Based on government revenue alone, the evidence does not indicate an economy that has declined since Brexit. The British state today collects substantially more revenue, both in cash terms and in real terms, than it did at the time of the referendum.
Public Spending
Government spending provides another useful measure of the scale and capacity of the state. If Brexit had severely weakened the public finances, one might expect government expenditure to come under sustained pressure. The data, however, show that public spending has increased substantially since the referendum.
In the 2016/17 fiscal year, total UK public spending was approximately £814 billion. By 2025/26, government expenditure had risen to around £1.35 trillion.
Part of this increase reflects inflation and population growth. However, spending has risen by considerably more than population alone would explain. Public expenditure per person is substantially higher today than it was at the time of the referendum.
The increase can be seen across many major areas of government activity, including healthcare, pensions, welfare, education and defence. This has enabled the state to fund a larger volume of services and support than was being provided in 2016.
A government facing a severe and prolonged collapse in revenue would typically struggle to maintain, let alone expand, public expenditure. Instead, spending has increased significantly over the period since Brexit.
Viewed purely through the lens of public expenditure, the British state today spends substantially more than it did at the time of the referendum. The available evidence therefore points to an expansion in the scale of government activity rather than a contraction.
Investment
Investment is often regarded as a key indicator of economic confidence. Businesses invest when they believe future opportunities justify committing capital, while foreign investors direct funds towards countries they consider attractive places to operate and generate returns.
Looking at the data since the Brexit referendum, both domestic and international investment remain higher than they were in 2016.
Business investment in the United Kingdom is above referendum-era levels, indicating that firms have continued to invest in equipment, infrastructure, technology and expansion projects. While investment has fluctuated from year to year, the overall level of investment today exceeds that seen at the time of the referendum.
Foreign investment has also remained substantial. The stock of inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) increased from approximately £1.2 trillion in 2016 to more than £2.1 trillion by 2024. This represents a significant increase in the amount of overseas capital invested in the United Kingdom.
The growth in both domestic investment and inward foreign investment suggests that businesses have continued to commit capital to the British economy following Brexit. If investors had broadly concluded that the United Kingdom was no longer an attractive place to invest, one would expect investment levels to fall. Instead, the available data show higher levels of investment than those recorded at the time of the referendum.
From this perspective, the investment data do not support claims that Brexit triggered an exodus of capital or a collapse in investor confidence. Both domestic and international investment remain above their referendum-era levels, indicating continued confidence in the long-term prospects of the British economy.
Economic Growth
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced within an economy and is one of the most widely used indicators of economic performance.
At the time of the Brexit referendum in 2016, the UK economy produced approximately $2.7 trillion of output. By 2025, GDP had risen to around $4.0 trillion, with further growth recorded into 2026.
The period since the referendum has included some of the most challenging economic conditions in modern history. The United Kingdom experienced the COVID-19 pandemic, nationwide lockdowns, global supply-chain disruption, an energy crisis, and the economic consequences of war in Europe. Despite these events, the economy continued to expand over the longer term.
The most basic measure of economic growth is whether the economy is larger than it was previously. On that measure, the answer is clear: the British economy today is substantially larger than it was at the time of the referendum.
GDP growth has not occurred in a straight line. There have been periods of contraction and recovery. However, the overall trend since 2016 has been upward, resulting in a larger economy than the one that existed when voters went to the polls.
Based on the observed size of the economy, the GDP data indicate continued economic growth rather than economic decline following Brexit.
Household Incomes and Earnings
Ultimately, economic performance matters because it affects the living standards of ordinary people. One way to assess this is by examining household incomes and earnings.
At the time of the Brexit referendum, the median full-time employee earned approximately £28,000 per year. By 2025, median annual earnings had risen to around £40,000.
This represents a substantial increase in the amount earned by the typical full-time worker. Over the same period, the number of people paying income tax also increased significantly, indicating that more people were participating in the workforce and earning taxable income.
Employment levels have remained strong throughout much of the post-referendum period. Despite the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic shocks, the proportion of working-age people in employment is slightly higher today than it was in 2016.
Household incomes have not risen uniformly across all groups, and periods of high inflation have reduced purchasing power at various points since the referendum. Nevertheless, the earnings data show that workers today receive substantially higher incomes than they did at the time of Brexit.
Viewed through the lens of earnings and employment, the evidence indicates that household incomes have increased rather than declined since the referendum.
Conclusion
Nearly a decade has passed since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. During that time, Brexit has remained one of the most debated political and economic decisions in modern British history.
This article has examined a number of key economic indicators by comparing conditions at the time of the referendum with those of today.
Government revenue increased from approximately £754 billion in 2016/17 to around £1.23 trillion in 2025/26. Even after accounting for inflation and population growth, the state collects substantially more revenue than it did at the time of the referendum.
Public spending also increased significantly, rising from roughly £814 billion to around £1.35 trillion. Government expenditure per person is higher than it was in 2016, reflecting an expansion rather than a contraction in the scale of public spending.
Investment has continued to flow into the United Kingdom. Domestic business investment remains above referendum-era levels, while the stock of inward foreign direct investment increased from approximately £1.2 trillion in 2016 to more than £2.1 trillion in 2024.
The economy itself is larger than it was at the time of the referendum. UK GDP has grown substantially since 2016 despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply-chain disruptions, the energy crisis and wider international economic turbulence.
Household earnings have also increased. Median full-time earnings are significantly higher than they were in 2016, employment remains strong, and millions more people are paying income tax than at the time of the referendum.
Taken together, these indicators show an economy that is larger, generates more tax revenue, attracts more investment, supports higher levels of public spending and provides higher earnings than it did when the Brexit referendum took place.
Brexit remains a political question on which opinions differ. However, when examining the economic indicators discussed in this article, the evidence shows continued growth and expansion rather than the economic collapse that many predicted in the aftermath of the referendum.
Maq Masi Blog 
Leave a comment